Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
